Comes into Focus.ʺ EE Times, January 26, 1998, issue 990. This article is online at
<http://www.techweb.com/se/directlink.cgi?EET19980126S0019>.
10. For a nontechnical introduction to DNA computing, read Vincent Kiernan, ʺDNA‐Based Computers Could Race Past
Supercomputers, Researchers Predict,ʺ in the Chronicle of Higher Education (November 28, 1997). Kiernan discusses the research of Dr. Robert Corn from the University of Wisconsin as well as the research of Dr. Leonard Adleman.
The article can be accessed online at <http://chronicle.com/data/articles.dir/art‐44.dir/issue‐14.dir/1 4ao2301:htm>.
Research at the University of Wisconsin can be accessed online at
<http://corninfo.chem.wisc.edu/writings/DNACOMPUTING.html>.
Leonard Adlenians ʺMolecular Computation of Solutions to Combinatorial Problemsʺ from the November 11,
1994, issue of Science (vol. 266, p 1021) provides a technical overview of his design of DNA programming for
computers.
11. Lambertus Hesselinkʹs research is reported by Phillip F. Schewe and Ben Stein in Physics News Update (no. 219; March 28, 1995). The description is available online at <http://www.aip.org/enews/physnews/1995/split/pnu2l9-2.htm>.
12. For information on nanotubes and buckyballs, read Janet Rae‐Dupreeʹs article ʺNanotechnology Could Be
Foundation for Next Mechanical Revolution,ʺ Knight‐Ridder/Tribune News Service, December 17, 1997, p. 1217K1133.
13. 13 Dr. Sumio Iijimaʹs research on nanotubes is summarized in the following article at the NEC site,
<http://www.labs.nec.co.jp/rdletter/letter01/index1.html>.
14. The research of Isaac Chuang and Neil Gershenfeld is reported in ʺCue the Qubits: Quantum Computing,ʺ The
Economist 342, no. 8005 (February 22, 1997): 91–92; and in an article by Dan Vergano, ʺBrewing a Quantum Computer in a Coffee Cup,ʺ Science News 151, no. 3 (January 18, 1997): 37. More technical details and a list of Chuang and Gershenfeldʹs publications can be found at the Physics and Media Group/MIT Media Lab
<http://physics.www.media.mit.edu/publications/> and at the Los Alamos National Laboratory
<http://qso.lanl.gov/qc/>.
Other groups working on quantum computation include the Information Mechanics group at MITʹs Lab for
Computer Science <http://www‐im.lcs.mit.edu/> and the Quantum Computation Group at IBM
<http://www.research.ibm.com/quantuminfo/>.
15. ʺStudent Cracks Encryption Code,ʺ USA Today Tech Report, September 2, 1997.
16. Mark Buchanan, ʺLightʹs Spooky Connections Set Distance Record,ʺ New Scientist, June 28, 1997.
17. Roger Penrose, The Emperorʹs New Mind (New York: Penguin USA, 1990).
18. To understand the concept of tunneling, it is important to understand how transistors on an integrated circuit chip work. An integrated chip is engraved with circuits comprised of thousands or millions of transistors, which
electronic devices use to control the flow of electricity. Transistors are made up of a small block of a semiconductor, a material that acts as both an insulator and a conductor of electricity. The first transistors were comprised of
germanium and were later replaced with silicon.
Transistors work by holding a pattern of electric charge, allowing that pattern of charge to change millions of
times every second. Tunneling refers to the ability of electrons (small particles that circle around the nucleus of an atom) to move or ʺtunnelʺ through the silicon. Electrons are said to tunnel through the barrier as a result of the
quantum uncertainty as to which side of the barrier they are actually on.
19. Knowledge chunks would be greater than the number of distinct words because words are used in more than one
way and with more than one meaning. Each different word meaning or usage is often referred to as a word ʺsense.ʺ
it is likely that Shakespeare used more than 1 00,000 word senses.
20. Quoted from Douglas R. Hofstadter, Gödel, Escher Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid (New York: Basic Books, 1979).
21. Michael Winerip, ʺSchizophreniaʹs Most Zealous Foe,ʺ New York Sunday Times, February 22, 1998.
22. The goal of the Visible Human Project is to create highly detailed three‐dimensional views of the male and female human body. The project is collecting transverse CT, MRI, and cryosection images. The web site is located at
<http://www.nlm.nih.gov/research/visible/visible human.html>.
23. Researchers Mark Habener, Doron Shoham, Amiram Grinvald, and Tobias Bonhoeffer published their experiments
on optical imaging in ʺSpatial Relationships among Three Columnar Systems in Cat Area 17,ʺ Journal of Neuroscience 17 (1997): 9270–9284.
More information on this and other brain‐imaging research is located at the Weizmann Instituteʹs web site
<http://www.weizmann.ac.il> and at Amiram Grinvaldʹs web site
<http://www.weizmann.ac.il/brain/grinvald/grinvald.htm>.
24. The work of Dr. Benebid and other researchers is summarized in an online article, ʺNeural Prosthetics Come of Age as Research Continues,ʺ by Robert Finn, The Scientist II, no. 19 (September 29, 1997): 13, 16. This article may be found at <http://www.the‐scientist.library.upenn.edu/yr1997/sept/research_ 970929.html>.
25. From an April 1998 phone interview by the author with Dr. Trosch.
26. Dr. Rizzoʹs research is also reviewed in Finnʹs article, ʺNeural Prosthetics Come of Age as Research Continues.ʺ
27. To read more about the ʺneuron transistor,ʺ visit the web site of the Membrane and Neurophysics Department at the Max Planck Institute for Biochemistry <http://mnphys.biochem.mpg.de/>.
28. Robert Finyi, ʺNeural Prosthetics Come of Age as Research Continues.ʺ
29. Carver Meadʹs research is described at <http://www.pcmp.caltech.edu/>.
30. W. B. Yeats, ʺSailing to Byzantium,ʺ from Selected Poems and Two Plays of William Butler Yeats, edited by M. L.
Rosenthal (New York: Macmillan, 1966).
CHAPTER 7: . . . AND BODIES
1. Herbert Dreyfus is well known for his critique of artificial intelligence in his book What Computers Canʹt Do: The Limits of Artificial Intelligence (New York: Harper and Row, 1979). Other theorists who may be considered to support the mind‐beyond‐machine perspective include J. R. Lucas and John Searle. See J. R. Lucasʹs ʺMinds, Machines and
Gödel,ʺ Philosophy 36 (1961): 120–124; and John Searleʹs ʺMind, Brains, and Programs,ʺ The Behavioral and Brain Sciences 3 (1980): 417–424. Also, see Searleʹs more recent book The Rediscovery of the Mind (Cambridge, MA: MIT
Press, 1992).
2. ʺResearchers led by Dr. Clifford Steer at the University of Minnesota Medical School report in the current Nature Medicine that they have eliminated the need for viruses by harnessing the bodyʹs own genetic repair processes. In a landmark proof‐of‐concept experiment, the Minnesota team permanently altered a blood‐clotting gene in 40 percent
of the liver cells in a group of rats. The researchers started by splicing their DNA patch into a slip of RNA. Then they encased the hybrid molecule in a protective coating, laced it with sugars that seek out liver cells, and injected it into lab rats. True to plan, the hybrid molecules zeroed in on the targeted gene and lined up alongside it. An enzyme in
the ratsʹ own liver cells did the rest: Whenever it spotted a mismatched DNA, it simply removed the offending DNA
and stitched in a replacement. Now the trick is to show that it will work with other tissues—and other species.ʺ
From ʺDNA Therapy: The New, Virus‐Free Way to Make Genetic Repairs.ʺ Time, March 16, 1998.
3. Hans Moravec, Mind Children: The Future of Robot and Human Intelligence (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1988), p. 108.
4. Ralph Merkleʹs comments on nanotechnology can be found in an overview at his web site at the Xerox Palo Alto
Research Center <http://sandbox.xerox.com/nano>. His site contains links to important publications on
nanotechnology, such as Richard Feynmanʹs 1959 talk and Eric Drexlerʹs dissertation, as well as links to various
research centers that focus on nanotechnology.
5. Richard Feynman presented these ideas on December 29, 1959, at the annual meeting of the American Physical
Society at the California Institute of Technology (Cal Tech). His talk was first published in the February 1960 issue of Cal Techʹs Engineering and Science. This article is available online at <http://nano.xerox.com/nanotech/feynman.html>.
6. Eric Drexler, Engines of Creation (New York: Anchor Press/Doubleday, 1986). The book is also accessible online from the Xerox nanotechnology site <http://sandbox.xerox.com/nano> and also from Drexlerʹs web site at the Foresight institute <http://www.foresight.org/EOC/index.html>.
7. Eric Drexler, Nanosystems: Molecular Machinery, Manufacturing, and Computation (New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1992).
8. According to Nanothincʹs web site <http://www.nanothinc.com/>, ʺNanotechnology, broadly defined to include a number of nanoscale‐related activities and disciplines, is a global industry in which more than 300 companies
generate over $5 billion in annual revenues today—and $24 billion in 4 years.ʺ Nanothinc includes a list of
companies and revenues upon which the figure is based. Some of the nanoapplications generating revenues are
micromachines, microelectromechanical systems, autofabrication, nanolithography, nanotechnology tools, scanning
probe microscopy, software, nanoscale materials, and nanophase materials.
9. Richard Smalleyʹs publications and work on nanotechnology can be found at the web site for the Center for
Nanoscale Science and Technology at Rice University <http://cnst.rice.edu/>.
10. For information on the use of nanotechnology in creating IBMʹs corporate logo, read Faye Flam, ʺTiny Instrument Has Big Implications.ʺ Knight‐Ridder/Tribute News Service, August 11, 1997, p. 811K7204.
11. Dr. Jeffrey Sampsell at Texas Instruments has written a white paper summarizing research on micromirrors,
available at <http://www.ti.coni/dlp/docs/it/resources/white/overview/over.sht ml>.
12. A description of the flying machines can be found at the web site of the MEMS (Microelectromechanical Systems)
and Fluid Dynamics Research Group at the University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA)
<http://ho.seas.ucla.edu/new/main.htm>.
13. Xeroxʹs nanotechnology research is described in Brian Santo, ʺSmart Matter Program Embeds Intelligence by
Combining Sensing, Actuation, Computation‐Xerox Builds on Sensor Theory for Smart Materials.ʺ EETimes (March 23, 1998):129. More information on this research can be found at the web site for the Smart Matter Research Group at Xeroxʹs Palo Alto Research Center at <http://www.parc.xerox.com/spl/projects/smart‐matter/>.
14. For information on the use of nanotechnology in creating the nanoguitar, read Faye Flar, ʺTiny Instrument Has Big Implications.ʺ Knight‐Ridder/Tribune News Service.
15. Learn more about the Chelyabinsk region by visiting the web site dedicated to helping the people living in that area at <http://www.logtv.com/chelya/chel.html>.
16. For more about the story behind Space War, see ʺA History of Computer Games,ʺ Computer Gaming World
(November 1991): 16–26; and Eric S. Raymond, ed., New Hackerʹs Dictionary (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1992).
Space War was developed by Steve Russell in 1961 and implemented by him on the PDP‐1 at MIT a year later.
17. Medical Learning Company is a joint venture between the American Board of Family Practice (an organization that certifies the sixty thousand family practice physicians in the United States) and Kurzweil Technologies. The goal of the company is to develop educational software for continuing medical education of physicians as well as other
markets. A key aspect of the technology will include an interactive simulated patient that can be examined,
interviewed, and treated.
18. Hallʹs Utility Fog concept is described in J. Storrs Hall, ʺUtility Fog Part I,ʺ Extropy, issue no. 13 (vol. 6, no. 2), third quarter 1994; and J. Storrs Hall, ʺUtility Fog Part 2,ʺ Extropy, issue no. 14 (vol. 71 no. 1), first quarter 1995. Also see Jim Wilson, ʺShrinking Micromachines: A New Generation of Tools Will Make Molecule‐Size Machines a Realityʺ
Popular Mechanics 174, no. 11 (November 1997): 55–58.
19. Mark Yim, ʺLocomotion with a Unit‐Modular Reconfigurable Robot,ʺ Stanford University Technical Report STAN‐
CS‐TR‐95‐1536.
20. Joseph Michael, UK Patent #94004227.2.
21. For examples of early ʺprurientʺ text publications, see A History of Erotic Literature by Patrick J. Kearney (Hong Kong, 1982); and History Laid Bare by Richard Zachs (New York: Harpercollins, 1994).
22. Upside Magazine, April 1998.
23. For example, the ʺTFUIʺ (Touch‐and‐Feel User Interface) from Pixis, as used in their Diva and Space Sirens series of CD‐ROMS.
24. From ʺWho Needs Jokes? Brain Has a Ticklish Spot,ʺ Malcolme W. Browne, New York Times, March 10, 1998. Also
see 1. Fried (with C. L. Wilson, K. A. MacDonald, and E. J. Behnke), ʺElectric Current Stimulates Laughter,ʺ Scientific Correspondence 391: 650, 1998.
25. K. Blum et al., ʺReward Deficiency Syndrome,ʺ American Scientist, March–April, 1996.
26. Brain Generated Music is a patented technology of Neurosonics, a small company in Baltimore, Maryland. The
founder, CEO, and principal developer of the technology is Dr. Geoff Wright, who is head of computer music at
Peabody Conservatory.
27. For details about Dr. Bensonʹs work, see his book The Relaxation Response (New York: Avon,1990).
28. ʺʺGod Spotʹ Is Found in Brain,ʺ Sunday Times (Britain), November 2, 1997.
CHAPTER 8: 1999
1. The U.S. Federal Government Gateway for Year 2000 Information Directories, at
<http://www.itpolicy.gsa.gov/mks/yr2000/y2khome.htm>, contain a number of links to web pages devoted to Y2K
issues. There are also many discussion groups on the Web about the Y2K topic. Simply do a search for ʺY2K
discussionʺ using a search engine such as Yahoo (www.yahoo.com) to find a number of web pages devoted to this
subject.
2. David Cope talks about his EMI program in his book Experiments in Musical Intelligence (Madison, WI: A‐R Editions, 1996). EMI is also discussed in Margaret Boden ʺArtificial Genius,ʺ Discover magazine, October 1996.
3. For more about the Improvisor program, see Margaret Boden, ʺArtificial Genius,ʺ Discover magazine, October 1996.
The article addresses the question of who is the actual creator of original art produced by computer programs—the
developer of the program or the program itself?
4. Laurie Flynn, ʺProgram Proves Bad Puns Not Limited to Humans,ʺ New York Times, January 3, 1998.
5. ʺParamind copies any text you type or paste into its screen and systematically merges your text with new words. The words are all related, such as adjectives related to sight, or adverbs related to walking. In the text that you type or paste in, a word or two is selected where these new words will fit in, in the way that you want. The result is a new listing of your idea changed in several fascinating ways.ʺ From the Paramind Brainstorming Software web page at
<http://wwwparamind.net/>. For more information about other computer writing programs, see Marius Watzʹs web
page called Computer Generated Writing at <http://www.notam.uio.no/~mariusw/c‐g.writing/>.
6. More information on BRUTUS. 1 Story Generator and its inventors can be found at
<http://www.rpi.edu/dept/ppcs/BRUTUS/brutus.html>.
7. Ray Kurzweilʹs Cybernetic Poet (RKCP) is a software program designed by Ray Kurzweil and developed by
Kurzweil Technologies. You can download a copy of the program at <http://www.kurzweiltech.com>.
8. For examples of Mutatorʹs artistic creations, visit the web site of Computer Artworks at
<http://www.artworks.co.uk/welcome.htm>.
Karl Sims has written several articles about his work, including ʺArtificial Evolution for Computer Graphics,ʺ
Computer Graphics 25, no. 4 (July 1991): 319–328.
9. Drawings and paintings by Aaron, Harold Cohenʹs cybernetic artist, have hung at Londonʹs Tate Gallery,
Amsterdamʹs Stedelijk Museum, the Brooklyn Museum, the San Francisco Museum of Modern Art, the Washington
Capitol Childrenʹs Museum, and others.
10. Harold Cohen, ʺHow to Draw Three People in a Botanical Garden,ʺ AAAI‐88, Proceedings of the Seventh National Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 1988, pp. 846–855. Some of the implications of Aaron are discussed in Pamela McCorduck, ʺArtificial Intelligence: An Apercu,ʺ Daedalus, Winter 1988, pp. 65–83.
11. A list of sites on Cohenʹs Aaron can be found at <http://www.umcs.maine.edu/~larry/latour/aaron.html>. Also see Harold Cohenʹs article in ʺConstructions of the Mindʺ at <http://shr.stanford.edu/shreview/4‐2/text/cohen.html>.
12. Raymond Kurzweil, The Age of Intelligent Machines (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1990). Also see the publications section at the web site for Kurzweil Technologies at <http://www.kurzweiltech.com> and the publications section at the web site for Kurzweil Educational Systems at <http://www.kurzweiledu.com>.
13. Venture capital refers to funds available for investment by organizations that have raised pools of capital specifically to invest in companies, primarily new ventures. Angel capital refers to funds available for investment by networks
of wealthy investors who invest in start‐up companies. In the United States, both venture and angel capital have
emphasized high‐technology investments.
14. For a comprehensive list of available speech‐ and face‐recognition products and research projects, go to The Face Recognition Home Page at <http://cherry.kist.re.kr/center/html/sites.html>.
15. For an excellent overview of this subject, see ʺThe Intelligent Vehicle Initiative: Advancing ʺHuman‐Centeredʹ Smart Vehicles,ʺ by Cheryl Little of the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center. This article is available through the Turner‐Fairbank Highway Research Center web page at <http://www.tfhrc.gov/pubrds/pr97‐10/p18.htm>. For details about the tests on Interstate 15 in California, go to National AHS Consortium Home Page at <http://monolith-mis.com/ahs/default.htm>.
16. For example, Voice Xpress Plus, from the dictation division of Lernout & Hauspie (formerly Kurzweil Applied Intelligence), combines large‐vocabulary, continuous speech recognition for dictation, with natural‐language
understanding for commands. Continuous speech recognition without natural‐language understanding (as of 1998)
is also available from Dragon Systemʹs Naturally Speaking and IBMʹs Viavoice.
17. Examples of translation products include Langenscheidtʹs T1 Professional from Gesellschaft far Multilinguale
Systeme, a division of Lernout & Hauspie Speech Products; Globalink Power Translator; and SYSTRAN Classic for
Windows.
18. Duncan Bythell, The Handloom Weavers: A Study in the English Cotton Industry During the Industrial Revolution, p. 70.
There are also a number of web sites exploring both the original Luddite history and the contemporary neo‐Luddite
movement. For one example, see the web page Luddites On‐Line at <http://www.luddites.com/index2.html>.
19. Ben J. Wattenberg, ed., The Statistical History of the United States from Colonial Times to the Present; U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1997.
20. Ben J. Wattenberg, ed., The Statistical History of the United States from Colonial Times to the Present.
21. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1997.
22. Ted Kaczynskiʹs Unabomber Manifesto was published in both the New York Times and the Washington Post in September 1995. The full text of the document is available on numerous web pages, including:
<http://www.soci.niu.edu/~critcrim/uni/uni.txt>.
CHAPTER 9: 2009
1. A consortium of eighteen manufacturers of cellular telephones and other portable electronic devices is developing a technology called Bluetooth, which provides wireless communications within a radius of about ten meters, at a data
rate of 700 to 900 kilobits per second. Bluetooth is expected to be introduced in late 1999 and will initially have a cost of about $20 per unit. This cost is expected to decline rapidly after introduction. Bluetooth will allow personal
communications and electronics devices to communicate with one another.
2. Technology such as Bluetooth (see note 1) will allow computer components such as computing units, keyboards,
pointing devices, printers, etc. to communicate with one another without the use of cables.
3. Microvision of Seattle has a product called a Virtual Retina Display (VRD) that projects images directly onto the userʹs retinas while allowing the user to see the normal environment. The Microvision VRD is currently expensive
and is sold primarily to the military for use by pilots. Microvisionʹs CEO Richard Rutkowski projects a consumer
version built on a single chip before the year 2000.
4. Projecting from the speed of personal computers, a 1998 personal computer can perform about 150 million
instructions per second for about $1,000. By doubling every twelve months, we get a projection of 150 million
multiplied by 211 (2,048) = 300 billion instructions per second in 2009. Instructions are less powerful than
calculations, so calculations per second will be around 100 billion. However, projecting from the speed of neural
computers, a 1997 neural computer provided about 2 billion neural connection calculations per second for around
$2,000, which is 1 billion calculations per $1,000. By doubling every twelve months, we get a projection of 1 billion times 212 (4,096) = 4 trillion calculations per second in 2009. By 2009, computers will routinely combine both types of computations, so if even 25 percent of the computations are of the neural connection calculation type, the estimate of 1 trillion calculations per second for $1,000 of computing in 2009 is reasonable.
5. The most powerful supercomputers are twenty thousand times more powerful than a $1,000 personal computer.
With $1,000 personal computers providing about 1 trillion calculations per second (particularly of the neural‐
connection type of calculation) in 2009, the more powerful supercomputers will provide about 20 million billion
calculations per second, which is about equal to the estimated processing power of the human brain.
6. As of this writing, there has been much publicity surrounding the work of Dr. Judith Folkman of Childrenʹs Hospital in Boston, Massachusetts, and the effects of angiogenesis inhibitors. In particular, the combination of Endostatin and Angiostatin, bio‐engineered drugs that inhibit the reproduction of capillaries, has been remarkably effective in mice.
Although there has been a lot of commentary pointing out that drugs that work in mice often do not work in
humans, the degree to which this drug combination worked in these laboratory animals was remarkable. Drugs that
work this well in mice often do work in humans.
See ʺHOPE IN THE LAB: A Special Report. A Cautious Awe Greets Drugs That Eradicate Tumors in Mice,ʺ New
York Times, May 3, 1998.
CHAPTER 10: 2019
1. See note 3 of chapter 9, ʺ2009,ʺ on the Microvision Virtual Retina Display.
2. A 1997 neural computer provided about 2 billion neural‐connection calculations per second for $2,000. By doubling twenty‐two times by the year 2019, that comes to about 8 million billion calculations per second for $2,000 and 16
million billion calculations per second for $4,000. In 2020, we get 16 million billion calculations per second for $2,000.
3. With each human brain providing about 1016 calculations per second and an estimated 10 billion (1010) persons, we get an estimated 1026 calculations per second for all human brains on Earth. There are about 100 million computers in the world in 1998. A conservative estimate for 2019 would be a billion computers equal to the power of the then
state‐of‐the‐art for $1,000 machines. Thus the total computing power of the computers equals one billion (109) times 1016 = 1025 calculations per second, which is 10 percent of 1026.
CHAPTER 11: 2029
1. With each human brain providing about 1016 calculations per second and an estimated 10 billion (1010) persons, we get an estimated 1026 calculations per second for all human brains on Earth. There are about 100 million computers in the world in 1998. A (very) conservative estimate for 2029 would be a billion computers equal to the then state‐of-the‐art for $1,000 machines. This is actually too conservative, but still sufficient for our purposes. Thus the total computing power of the computers equals one billion (109) times 1019 = 1028 calculations per second, which is one
hundred times the processing power of all human brains (which is 1026 calculations per second)
2. See Raymond Kurzweil , The 10% Solution for a Healthy Life: How to Eliminate Virtually All Risk of Heart Disease and Cancer (New York: Crown Publishers, 1993).
CHAPTER 12: 2099
As discussed in chapter 6, ʺBuilding New Brains,ʺ and chapter 10, ʺ2019,ʺ human capacity of an estimated 2 1016
(neural connection) calculations per second will be achieved in a $1,000 computing device by around the year 2020.
Also as noted, the capacity of computing will double every twelve months, or ten times every decade, which is a
factor of one thousand (210) every ten years. Thus by the year 2099, $1,000 of computing will be roughly equivalent
to 1024 times the computing capacity of the human brain, or 1040 calculations per second. Estimating a trillion
virtual persons (hundred times greater than the roughly 10 billion persons in the early twenty‐first century), and an estimated $1 million of computing devoted to each person, we get an estimated 1055 calculations per second.
1. One thousand qu‐bits would enable 21,000 (approximately 10300) calculations to be performed at the same time. If 1042
of the calculations each second are such quantum calculations, then that is equivalent to 1042 ¯ 10300 = 10342
calculations per second. 1055 + 10342 still equals about 10342.
2. What happened to picoengineering, youʹre wondering? Picoengineering refers to engineering at the scale of a
picometer, which is one trillionth of a meter. Remember that the author has not spoken to Molly for seventy years.
Nanotechnology (technology on the scale of a billionth of a meter) is becoming practical in the decade between 2019
and 2029. Note that in the twentieth century, the Law of Accelerating Returns as applied to computation has been
achieved through engineering at ever smaller scales of physical size. Mooreʹs Law is a good example of this, in that the size of a transistor (in two dimensions) has been decreasing by 50 percent every two years. This means that
transistors have been shrinking by a factor of 25 = 32 in ten years. Thus the feature size of a transistor in each dimension has been shrinking by a factor of the square root of 32 = 5.6 every ten years. We are shrinking, therefore, the feature size of components by a factor of about 5.6 in each dimension every decade.
If engineering at the nanometer scale (nanotechnology) is practical in the year 2032, then engineering at the
picometer scale should be practical about forty years later (because 5.64 = approximately 1,000), or in the year 2072.
Engineering at the femtometer (one thousandth of a trillionth of a meter, also referred to as a quadrillionth of a
meter) scale should be feasible, therefore, by around the year 2112. Thus I am being a bit conservative to say that
femtoengineering is controversial in 2099.
Nanoengineering involves manipulating individual atoms. Picoengineering will involve engineering at the level
of subatomic particles (e.g., electrons). Femtoengineering will involve engineering inside a quark. This should not
seem particularly startling, as contemporary theories already postulate intricate mechanisms within quarks.
EPILOGUE: THE REST OF THE UNIVERSE REVISITED
1. We could use the Busy Beaver Function (see note 16 on the Turing machine in chapter 4) as a quantitative measure of the software of intelligence.
TIME LINE
Sources for the timeline include Raymond Kurzweil, The Age of Intelligent Machines (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1990).
Introduction to big bang theory at <http://www.bowdoin.edu/dept/physics/astro.1997/astro4/bigbang.ht ml>;
Joseph Silk, A Short History of the Universe (New York: Scientific American Library, 1994); Joseph Silk, The Big Bang (San Francisco: W. H. Freeman and Company, 1980); Robert M. Wald, Space, Time and Gravity (Chicago: The
University of Chicago Press, 1977); Stephen W. Hawking, A Brief History of Time (New York: Bantam Books, 1988).
Evolution and behavior at <http://ccp.uchicago.edu/~jyin/evolution.html>; Edward O. Wilson , The Diversity of Life (New York: W. W. Norton and Company, 1993); Stephen Jay Gould, The Book of Life (New York: W. W. Norton and Company, 1993); Alexander Hellemans and Bryan Bunch, The Timetable of Science (Simon and Schuster, 1988).
ʺCBN History: Radio/Broadcasting Timelineʺ at <http://www. wcbn.orgthistory/wcbntime.html>.
ʺChronology of Events in the History of Microcomputersʺ at
<http://www3.islandnet.com/~kpolsson/comphist.htm>.
ʺThe Computer Museum History Centerʺ at <http://www.tem.org/history/index.html>.
1. Picoengineering involves engineering at the level of subatomic particles (e.g., electrons). See note 3 on
picoengineering and femtoengineering in chapter 12.
2. Femtoengineering will involve engineering using mechanisms within a quark. See note 3 on picoengineering and
femtoengineering in chapter 12.
HOW TO BUILD AN INTELLIGENT MACHINE IN THREE EASY PARADIGMS
1. See ʺInformation Processing in the Human Body,ʺ by Vadim Gerasimov, at
<http://vadim.www.media.mit.edu/MAS862/Project.html>.
2. Marvin Minsky and Seymour A. Papert, Perceptrons: An Introduction to Computational Geometry (Cambridge, MA: MIT
Press, 1988).
3. The quoted text on the ʺtwo daughter sciencesʺ is from Seymour Papert, ʺOne AI or Many,ʺ Daedalus, Winter 1988.
ʺDr. Seymour Papert is a mathematician and one of the early pioneers of Artificial Intelligence. Additionally, he
is internationally recognized as the seminal thinker about ways in which computers can change learning. Born and
educated in South Africa where he participated actively in the anti‐apartheid movement, Dr. Papert pursued
mathematical research at Cambridge University from 1954 through 1958. He then worked with Jean Piaget at the
University of Geneva from 1958 through 1963. It was this collaboration that led him to consider using mathematics
in the service of understanding how children can learn and think. In the early 1960s, Papert came to MIT where, with Marvin Minsky, he founded the Artificial Intelligence Laboratory and coauthored their seminal work Perceptrons.ʺ
From the web page entitled ʺSeymour Papertʺ at <http://papert.www.media.mit.edu/people/papert/>.
4. ʺ[Marvin] Minsky was . . . one of the pioneers of intelligence‐based mechanical robotics and telepresence . . . In 1951
he built the first randomly wired neural network learning machine (called SNARC, for Stochastic Neural‐Analog
Reinforcement Computer), based on the reinforcement of simulated synaptic transmission coefficients. . . . Since the early 1950s, Marvin Minsky has worked on using computational ideas to characterize human psychological
processes, as well as working to endow machines with intelligence.ʺ From the brief academic biography of Marvin
Minsky at <http://minsky.www.media.mit.edu/people/minsky/minskybiog.html>.
5. Dr. Raj Reddy is dean of the School of Computer Science at Carnegie Mellon University and the Herbert A. Simon
University Professor of Computer Science and Robotics. Dr. Reddy is a leading AI researcher whose research
interests include the study of human‐computer interaction and artificial intelligence.
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WEB LINKS
The following is a catalog organized by subject of World Wide Web sites relevant to topics in the book. Remember
that compared to books listed in a bibliography, web sites are not nearly as long lasting. These sites were all verified when the book went to press, but inevitably some will become inactive. The Web, unfortunately, is littered with
nonfunctioning sites.
SITES RELEVANT TO THE BOOK
Web site for the book The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence by Ray Kurzweil:
<http://www.penguinputnam.com/kurzweil>
To e‐mail the author:
raymond@kurzweiltech.com
To download a copy of Ray Kurzweilʹs Cybernetic Poet:
<http://www.kurzweiltech.com>
This bookʹs publisher, Viking:
<http://www.penguinputnam.com>
For publications of Ray Kurzweil:
Go to <http://www.kurzweiltech.com> or <http://www.kurzweiledu.com> and then select ʺPublicationsʺ
WEB SITES FOR COMPANIES FOUNDED BY RAY KURZWEIL
Kurzweil Educational Systems, Inc. (creator of print‐to‐speech reading systems for persons with reading disabilities and visual impairment):
<http://www.kurzweiledu.com>
Kurzweil Technologies, Inc. (creator of Ray Kurzweilʹs Cybernetic Poet and other software projects):
<http://www.kurzweiltech.com>
The dictation division of Lernout & Hauspie Speech Products (formerly Kurzweil Applied Intelligence, Inc.), creator of speech recognition and natural language software systems:
<http://www.lhs.com/dictation/>
The overall Lernout & Hauspie web site: <http://www.lhs.com/>
Kurzweil Music Systems, Inc., creator of computer‐based music synthesizers, sold to Young Chang in 1990:
<http://www.youngchang.com/kurzweil/index.html>
Textbridge Optical Character Recognition (OCR). Formerly Kurzweil OCR from Kurzweil Computer Products, Inc.
(sold to Xerox Corp. in 1980): <http://www.xerox.com/scansoft/textbridge/>
ARTIFICIAL LIFE AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE RESEARCH
The Artificial Intelligence Laboratory at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT):
<http://www.ai.mit.edu/>
Artificial Life Online:
<http://alife.santafe‐edu>
Contemporary Philosophy of Mind: An Annotated Bibliography:
<http://ling.ucsc.edu/~chalmers/biblio.html>
Machine Learning Laboratory, the University of Massachusetts, Amherst:
<http://www‐ml.cs.umass.edu/>
The MIT Media Lab:
<http://www.media.mit.edu/>
SSIE 58OB: Evolutionary Systems and Artificial Life, by Luis M. Rocha, Los Alamos National Laboratory:
<http://www.c3.lanl.gov/~rocha/ss504_02.html>
Stewart Deanʹs Guide to Artificial Life:
<http://www.webslave.dircon.co.uk/alife/intro.html>
ASTRONOMY/PHYSICS
American Institute of Physics:
<http://www.aip.org/history/einstein/>
International Astronomical Union (IAU):
<http://www.intastun.org/>
Introduction to the Big Bang Theory:
<http://www.bowdoin.edu/dept/physics/astro.1997/astro4/bigbang.ht ml>
BIOLOGY AND EVOLUTION
American Scientist Article: Reward Deficiency Syndrome:
<http://www.amsci.org/amsci/Articles/96Articles/Blum‐full.html>
Animal Diversity Web Site, the Museum of Zoology at the University of Michigan:
<http://www.oit.itd.umich.edu/projects/ADW/>
Charles Darwinʹs Origin of Species:
<http://www.literature.org/Works/Charles‐Darwin/origin/>
Evolution and Behavior:
<http://ccp.uchicago.edu/~jyin/evolution.html>
The Human Genome Project:
<http://www.nhgri.nih.gov/HGP/>
Information Processing in the Human Body:
<http://vadim.www.media.mit.edu/MAS862/Project.html>
Thomas Ray/Tierra:
<http://www.hip.atr.co.jp/~ray/>
The Visible Human Project:
<http://www.nlm.nih.gov/research/visible/visible human.html>
BRAIN IMAGING RESEARCH
Brain Research Web Page, Jeffrey H. Lake Research:
<http://www.brainresearch.com/>
Applications of brain research:
<http://www.brainresearch.com/apps.html>
Amiram Grinvaldʹs web site: Imaging the Brain in Action:
<http://www.weizmann.ac.il/brain/grinvald/grinvald.htm>
The Harvard Brain Tissue Resource Center:
<http://www.brainbank.mclean.org:8080>
The Mclean Hospital Brain Imaging Center:
<http://www.mclean.org:8080/>
Optical Imaging, Inc., Home Page:
<http://opt‐imaging.com/>
Research Imaging Center: Solving the Mysteries of the Mind, University of Texas Health Science Center at San
Antonio:
<http://biad63.uthscsa.edu/>
Visualization and Analysis of 3D Functional Brain Images, by Finn A rup Nielsen, Institute of Mathematical
Modeling, Section for Digital Signal Processing, former Electronics Institute, Technical University of Denmark:
<http://hendrix.ei.dtu.dk/staff/students/fnielsen/thesis/finn/fin n.html>
Weizmann Institute of Science:
<http://www.weizmann.ac.il/>
The Whole Brain Atlas:
<http://www.med.harvard.edu/AANLIB/home.html>
COMPUTER BUSINESS/MEDICAL APPLICATIONS
Automated Highway System DEMO; National AHS Consortium Home Page:
<http://monolith‐mis.com/ahs/default.htm>
Biometric (The Face Recognition Home Page):
<http://cherrykist.re.kr/center/html/sites.html>
Face Recognition Homepage:
<http://www.cs.rug.nl/~peterkr/FACE/face.html>
The Intelligent Vehicle Initiative: Advancing ʺHuman‐Centeredʺ Smart Vehicles:
<http://www.tfhrc.gov/pubrds/pr97‐10/p18.htm>
Kurzweil Educational Systems, Inc.:
<http://www.kurzweiledu.com/>
Kurzweil music (Welcome to Kurzweil Music Systems):
<http://www.youngchang.com/kurzweil/index.html>
Laboratory for Financial Engineering at MIT:
<http://web.rnit.edu/lfe/www/>
Lernout & Hauspie Speech Products:
<http://www.lhs.com>
Medical Symptoms Matching Software:
<http://www.ozemail.com.au/~lisadev/sftdocpu.htm>
Miros Company Information:
<http://www.miros.com,/About_Miros.htm>
Synaptics, Inc.:
<http://www.synaptics.com/>
Systran:
<http://www.systransoft.ccm/>
COMPUTERS AND ART/CREATIVITY
Arachnautʹs Lair ‐ Electronic Music Links:
<http://www.arachnaut.org/music/links.html>
Artspace: Computer Generated Art:
<http://www.uni.uiuc.edu/~artspace/compgen.html>
BRUTUS.1 Story Generator:
<http://www.rpi.edu/dept/ppcs/BRUTUS/brutus.html>
But Is It Computer Art?:
<http://www.cs.swarthmore.edu/~binde/art/index.html>
Computer Artworks, Ltd.:
<http://www.artworks.co.uk/welcome.htm>
Computer Generated Writing:
<http://www.notam.uio.no/~mariusw/c‐g.writing/>
Northwest Cyberartists: Time Warp of Past Events:
<http://www.nwlink.com/cyberartists/timewarp.html>
Music Software:
<http://www.yahoo.com/Entertainment/Music/Software/>
An OBS Cyberspace Extension of Being Digital, by Nicholas Negroponte:
<http://www.obs‐us.com/obs/english/books/nn/bdintro.htm>
Ray Kurzweilʹs Cybernetic Poet:
<http://www‐kurzweiltech.com>
Recommended Reading, Computer Art:
<http://ananke.advanced.org/3543/resourcessites.html>
Virtual Muse: Experiments in Computer Poetry:
<http://camel.conncoll.edu/ccother/cohar/programs/index.html>
COMPUTERS AND CONSCIOUSNESS/SPIRITUALITY
Considerations on the Human Consciousness:
<http://www.mediacom,it/~v.colaciuri/consc.htm>
Extropy Online, Arterati on Ideas, by Natasha Vita More; Vingeʹs View of the Singularity:
<http://www.extropycom/~exi/eo/articles/vinge.htm>
God and Computers:
<http://web.mit.edu/bpadams/www/gac/>
Kasparov vs. Deep Blue: The Rematch:
<http://www.nytimes.com/partners/microsites/chess/archive8.html>
Online papers on consciousness, compiled by David Chalmers:
<http://ling.ucsc.edu/~chalmers/mind.html>
Toward a Science of Consciousness 1998 ʺTucson III,ʺ Conference, The University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona.
Support provided by the Fetzer institute and the Institute of Noetic Sciences:
<http://www.zynet.co.uk/imprint/Tucson/>
COMPUTING SCIENCE RESEARCH
Defining Virtual Reality, Industry Consortium in the Institute for Communication Research, Department of
Communication, Stanford University:
<http://www.cyborganic.com/people/jonathan/Academia/Papers/Web/de fining‐v.html>
Computer Games: Past, Present, Future:
<http://www.bluetongue.com/~pang/DRAFT.html>
The Haptics Community Web Page:
<http://haptic.mech.nwu.edu>
Modeling and Simulation: Linking Entertainment and Defense:
<http://www.nap.edu/readingroom/books/modeling/index.html>
Physics News Update Number 219 ‐ The Density of Data. A link to Lambertus Hesselinkʹs research on crystal
computing:
<http://www.aip.org/enews/physnews/1995/split/pnu2l9‐2.htm>
Student cracks encryption code. A link to an article in USA Today on how Ian Goldberg, the graduate student from the University of California, cracked the 40‐bit encryption code:
<http://www.usatoday.com/life/cyber/tech/ct718.htm>
Autonomous Agents
Agent Web Links:
<http://www.cs.bham.ac.uk/~amw/agents/links/index.html>
Computer Vision
Computer Vision Research Groups:
<http://www.cs.cmu.edu/~cil/v‐groups.html>
DNA Computing
ʺDNA‐based computers could race past supercomputers, researchers predict.ʺ A link to an article in the Chronicle of Higher Education on DNA computing, by Vincent Kiernan:
<http://chronicle.com/data/articles.dir/art‐44. dir/issue14.dir/14a0230 l.htm>
Explanation of Molecular Computing with DNA, by Fred Hapgood, Moderator of the Nanosystems Interest Group at
MIT:
<http://www.mitre.org/research/nanotech/hapgood_on_dna.html>
The University of Wisconsin: DNA Computing:
<http://corninfo.chem.wisc.edu/writings/DNACOMPUTING.html>
Expert Systems/Knowledge Engineering
Knowledge Engineering, Engineering Management Graduate Program at Christian Brothers University: Online
Resources to a Variety of Links:
<http://www.cbu.edu/~pong/engm624.htnl>
Genetic Algorithms/Evolutionary Computation
The Genetic Algorithms Archive at the Navy Center for Applied Research in Artificial Intelligence:
<http://www.aic.nrl.navymil/galist/>
The Hitchhikerʹs Guide to Evolutionary Computation, Issue 6.2: A List of Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ), edited
by Jörg Heitkötter and David Beasley:
<ftp://ftp.cs.wayne.edu/pub/EC/FAQ/www/top.htm>
The Santa Fe Institute:
<http://www.santafe.edu>
Knowledge Management
ATM Links (Asynchronous Transfer Mode):
<http://www.ee.cityu.edu.hk/~splam/html/atmlinks.html>
Knowledge Management Network:
<http://kmn.cibit.hvu.nl/index.html>
Some Ongoing KBS/Ontology Projects and Groups:
<http://www.cs.utexas.edu/users/mfkb/related.html>
Nanotechnology
Eric Drexlerʹs web site at the Foresight institute (includes the complete text of Engines of Creation):
<http://www.foresight.org/EOC/index.html>
Richard Feymnanʹs talk, ʺThereʹs Plenty of Room at the Bottomʺ:
<http://nano.xerox.com/nanotech/feynman.html>
Nanotechnology: Ralph Merkleʹs web site at the Xerox Palo Alto Research Center:
<http://sandbox.xerox.com/nano>
Microelectromechanical Systems and Fluid Dynamics Research Group Professor Chih‐Ming Hoʹs Laboratory,
University of California at Los Angeles:
<http://ho.seas.ucla.edu/new/main.htm>
Nanolink: Key Nanotechnology Sites on the Web:
<http://sunsite.nus.sg/MEMEX/nanolink.html>
Nanothinc:
<http://www.nanothinc.com/>
NEC Research and Development Letter: A summary of Dr. Sumio Iijimaʹs research on nanotubes:
<http://www.labs.nec.co.jp/rdletter/letter01/index1.html>
An Overview of the Performance Envelope of Digital Micromirror Device (DMD) Based Projection Display System by
Dr. Jeffrey Sampsell of Texas Instruments. A link to a paper describing the creation of micromirrors in a tiny, high-resolution projector:
<http://www.ti.com/dlp/docs/it/resources/white/overview/over.shtm l>
Small Is Beautiful: A Collection of Nanotechnology Links:
<http://science.nas.nasa.gov/Groups/Nanotechnology/nanotech.html>
Center for Nanoscale Science and Technology at Rice University:
<http://cnst.rice.edu/>
The Smart Matter Research Group, Xerox Palo Alto Research Center:
<http://www.parc.xerox.com/spl/projects/smart‐matter/>
Richard Smalleyʹs home page:
<http://cnst.rice.edu/reshome.html>
Neural Implants/Neural Prosthetics
Membrane and Neurophysics Department, the Max Planck Institute for Biochemistry:
<http://mnphys.biochem.mpg.de/>
ʺNeural Prosthetics Come of Age as Research Continues,ʺ by Robert Finn, in the Scientist. A link to an article on the use of neural prosthetics in helping patients with neurological disorders:
<http://www.the‐scientist.library.upenn.edu/yr1997/sept/research_ 970929.html>
Physics of Computation‐Carver Meadʹs Group:
<http://www.pcmp.caltech.edu/>
Neural Nets
Brainmaker/California Scientificʹs home page:
<http://www.calsci.com/>
Hugo de Garisʹs web site on Brain Builder Group:
<http://www.hip.atr.co.jp/~degaris>
IEEE Neural Network Council Home Page:
<http://www.ewh.ieee.org/tc/nnc/>
Neural Network Frequently Asked Questions:
<ftp://ftp.sas.com/pub/neural/FAQ.html>
PROFIT Initiative at MITʹs Sloan School of Management:
<http://scanner‐group.mit.edu/>
Quantum Computing
The Information Mechanics Group/Lab for Computer Science at MIT:
<http://www‐im.lcs.mit.edu/>
Quantum computation/cryptography at Los Alamos National Laboratory:
<http://qso.lanl.gov/qc/>
Physics and Media Group at the MIT. Media Lab:
<http://physics.www.media.mit.edu/home.html>
Quantum Computation at IBM:
<http://www.research.ibm.com/quantuminfo/>
Supercomputers
Accelerated Strategic Computing Initiative:
<http://www.llnl.gov/asci>
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory/University of California for the U.S. Department of Energy:
<http://www.llnl.gov/>
NEC Begins Designing Worldʹs Fastest Computer:
<http://www.nb‐pacifica.com/headline/necbeginsdesigningwo_1208.sh tml>
FUTURE VISIONS
ACM 97 ʺThe Next 50 Yearsʺ (Association for Computing Machinery):
<http://research.microsoft.com/acm97/>
The Extropy Site (a web site and on‐line magazine covering a wide range of advanced. and future technologies)
<http://www.extropy.org>
SETI Institute web site:
<http://www.seti.org>
WTA: The World Transhumanist Association:
<http://www.transhumanism.com/>
HISTORY OF COMPUTERS
Advances of the 1960s:
<http://www.inwap.com/reboot/alliance/1960s.txt>
BYTE Magazine‐December 1996/Cover Story/Progress and Pitfalls:
<http://www.byte.com/art/9612/sec6/art3.htm>
History of Computing: IEEE Computer Society:
<http://www.computer.org/50/>
The Historical Collection, the Computer Museum History Center:
<http://www.tcm.org/html/history/index.html>
Intel Museum Home Page: What is Mooreʹs Law?:
<http://www.pentium.com/intel/museum/25anniv/hof/moore.htm>
SPACEWAR: Fanatic Life and Symbolic Death Among the Computer Bums, by Stewart Brand:
<http://www.baumgart.com/rolling‐stone/spacewar.html>
Timeline of Events in Computer History, from the Virtual History Museum Group:
<http://video.cs.vt.edu:90/cgi‐bin/Showmap>
Chronology of Events in the History of Computers:
<http://www3.islandnet.com/~kpolssori/comphist.htm>
Unisys History Newsletter:
<http//www.cc.gatech.edu/services/unisys‐folklore./>
INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION AND LUDDITES/NEOLUDDITE MOVEMENT
Anarcho‐Primitivist, anticivilization, and neo‐Luddite articles:
<http://elaine.teleport.com/~jaheriot/anarprim.htm>
Whatʹs a Luddite?:
<http://www.bigeastern.com/ludd/nl_whats.htm>
Luddites On‐Line:
<http://www.luddites.com/index2.html>
The Unabomber Manifesto by Ted Kaczynski:
<http://www.soci.niu.edu/~critcrim/uni/uni.txt>
[Index omitted]